A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
