This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid
Just 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard query to resolve. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, even as the wins have stacked up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club that have just won 10 in a row, they appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent they have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.